Commodities

A US-Iran peace agreement signed in mid-June 2026 has driven crude oil to its lowest price since the four-month conflict began, erasing the war premium that had dominated energy markets since February. The more-than-30% decline from May's peak is rippling across equities, industrial metals, and producer price data worldwide. CFD traders face a materially altered volatility landscape as the geopolitical risk premium unwinds.

A signed ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, combined with Kuwait lifting its force majeure and raising output above 2 million barrels per day, drove crude oil down nearly $2.88 to $73.94 — its lowest print in three and a half months. Equity markets moved in the opposite direction, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.01% and the Nasdaq adding 1.40%, as the geopolitical risk premium embedded in both oil and broader markets began to unwind.

A US-Iran agreement has rattled crude markets, sending WTI down roughly 3% as traders priced in the return of significant Iranian barrels. Yet record-setting US inventory draws and an unchanged IEA supply-cut forecast for 2026 mean the near-term picture is far less bearish than the headline move suggests. CFD traders face a market pulled in two directions simultaneously.